The Anticipated Future of Public Health Services Post COVID-19: Viewpoint.

In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected various public health functions and essential services in different ways and magnitudes. Although all countries have witnessed the effect of COVID-19, the impact differed based on many factors including the integrity and resiliency of the countries' health systems. This paper presents opinions and expectations of the authors about the anticipated changes in the future of public health at the global, regional, and national levels. The viewpoint is based on the current efforts and challenges that various stakeholders have carried out to control COVID-19 and the contribution from the literature on the future of public health. Numerous agencies and actors are involved in the fight against COVID-19 with variations in their effectiveness. The public health services showed weaknesses in most of the countries, in addition to the lack of adequate curative medicine settings. The pandemic highlighted the need for better governance and stronger and more resilient health systems and capacities. The COVID-19 experience has also emphasized the importance of coordination and collaboration among the countries and stakeholders. The COVID-19 pandemic might lead to a wide discussion to improve international and national approaches to prepare for and respond to similar events in terms of preparedness and response mechanisms and tools. Public health will not be the same as before COVID-19. New health priorities, approaches, and new agendas will be on the table of the global platforms and initiatives. More investment in research and technology to meet the demand for new vaccines and medicines, innovative methods like distance learning and working, more respect and remuneration to health professionals, and normalization of the public health and social measures that were induced during the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to be seen in future.

Assessing vaccination priorities for different ages and age-specific vaccination strategies of COVID-19 using an SEIR modelling approach.

In the past year, the global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, showing a trend of continuous expansion. With the research and application of vaccines, there is an urgent need to develop some optimal vaccination strategies. How to make a reasonable vaccination strategy to determine the priority of vaccination under the limited vaccine resources to control the epidemic and reduce human casualties? We build a dynamic model with vaccination which is extended the classical SEIR model. By fitting the epidemic data of three countries-China, Brazil, Indonesia, we have evaluated age-specific vaccination strategy for the number of infections and deaths. Furthermore, we have evaluated the impact of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of the basic reproduction number. At last, we also have evaluated the different age structure of the vaccination priority. It shows that giving priority to vaccination of young people can control the number of infections, while giving priority to vaccination of the elderly can greatly reduce the number of deaths in most cases. Furthermore, we have found that young people should be mainly vaccinated to reduce the number of infections. When the emphasis is on reducing the number of deaths, it is important to focus vaccination on the elderly. Simulations suggest that appropriate age-specific vaccination strategies can effectively control the epidemic, both in terms of the number of infections and deaths.

Impact of vaccination by priority group on UK deaths, hospital admissions and intensive care admissions from COVID-19.

National (and global) vaccination provides an opportunity to control the COVID-19 pandemic, which disease suppression by societal lockdown and individual behavioural changes will not. We modelled how vaccination through the UK's vaccine priority groups impacts deaths, hospital and ICU admissions from COVID-19. We used the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan and publicly available data to estimate UK population by age group and vaccination priority group, including frontline health and social care workers and individuals deemed 'extreme clinical vulnerable' or 'high risk'. Using published data on numbers and distributions of COVID-19-related hospital and ICU admissions and deaths, we modelled the impact of vaccination by age group. We then modified the model to account for hospital and ICU admission, and death among health and social care workers and the population with extreme clinical vulnerability and high risk. Our model closely matches the government's estimates for mortality after vaccination of priority groups 1-4 and groups 1-9. The model shows vaccination will have a much slower impact on hospital and ICU admissions than on deaths. The early prioritisation of healthcare staff and clinically vulnerable patients increases the impact of vaccination on admissions and also protects the healthcare service. An inflection point, when 50% of the adult population has been vaccinated - with deaths reduced by 95% and hospital admissions by 80% - may be a useful point for re-evaluating vaccine prioritisation. Our model suggests substantial reductions in hospital and ICU admissions will not occur until late March and into April 2021.

Vital Directions For Health And Health Care: Priorities For 2021.

In 2016, in anticipation of the US presidential election and forthcoming new administration, the National Academy of Medicine launched a strategic initiative to marshal expert guidance on pressing health and health care priorities. Published as Vital Directions for Health and Health Care, the products of the initiative provide trusted, nonpartisan, evidence-based analysis of critical issues in health, health care, and biomedical science. The current collection of articles published in Health Affairs builds on the initial Vital Directions series by addressing a set of issues that have a particularly compelling need for attention from the next administration: health costs and financing, early childhood and maternal health, mental health and addiction, better health and health care for older adults, and infectious disease threats. The articles also reflect the current experience with both the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the health inequities that have been drawn out sharply by COVID-19, as well as the implications going forward for action.

Thyroid fine-needle aspiration trends before, during, and after the lockdown: what we have learned so far from the COVID-19 pandemic.

PURPOSE: Nowadays, the clinical management of thyroid nodules needs to be multi-disciplinary. In particular, the crosstalk between endocrinologists and cytopathologists is key. When FNAs are properly requested by endocrinologists for nodules characterised by relevant clinical and ultrasound features, cytopathologists play a pivotal role in the diagnostic work-up. Conversely, improper FNA requests can lead to questionable diagnostic efficiency. Recently, recommendations to delay all non-urgent diagnostic procedures, such as thyroid FNAs, to contain the spread of COVID-19 infection, have made the interplay between endocrinologists and cytopathologists even more essential. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on our practice by evaluating the total number of FNAs performed and the distribution of the Bethesda Categories before, during, and after the lockdown. METHODS: We analysed the FNA trends before (1st January 2019 to March 13th 2020), during (March 14th to May 15th), and after (May 16th to July 7th) the lockdown. RESULTS: Although the total number of weekly FNAs dropped from 62.1 to 23.1, our referring endocrinologists managed to prioritise patients with high-risk nodules. In fact, in the post-lockdown, the weekly proportion of benign diagnoses dropped on average by 12% and that of high-risk diagnoses increased by 6%. CONCLUSIONS: The lesson we have learned so far from this pandemic is that by applying safety protocols to avoid contagion and by increasing the threshold for FNA requests for thyroid nodules, we can continue to guarantee our services to high-risk patients even in times of a health crisis.